As part of BISC’s Kaliningrad 2050 programme (#KG2050) we are producing a book-length report on the stresses and strains inside Russia’s geopolitical trophy.

Edited by the British Russia-watcher and KG2050 director Christopher Peters, its authors include local and outside experts. It highlights the depleted Russian military (“tumbleweed” in the words of a Polish analyst), the conflicted local identity, the unsustainable economic model, relations with neighbours, political trends, the media landscape and other topics.

Fragile Fortress concludes with an analysis of the crisis simulations being held in Vilnius October 8 to 10, 2026, in which experts work through responses and consequences of economic, social and other emergencies in Kaliningrad.

Putin’s sabre-rattling over Kaliningrad is not just a bluff. It’s a signal that the Kremlin is worried about the exclave’s future status.

BISC will be doing a lot more on this in the coming months. If you want to read Fragile Fortress, subscribe to the BISC “Be More Baltic” newsletter. Its readers will be the first to get a download link.