The Narva scare, fake elections, good German journalism and Kaliningrad latest
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Did you hear that Russia is about to invade the Baltic states? It isn’t. But you wouldn’t know from reading Newsweek, which turned ISW’s wonkish, hypothetical scenario about a possible provocation in Narva into “How Putin’s invasion of NATO could unfold.”
Clickbaiting doomsday talk about Narva (or Daugavpils or the Suwałki-Alytus corridor) is the fourth of our seven deadly sins.
We have been pushing back hard on social media against the know-alls, scaremongers, and other noisemakers. Many are anonymous. When they’re not, we contact them directly. It’s not just us. Here’s Brigadier Jamie Murray, who commands British forces in Estonia.
Key points: The Baltics are not like Ukraine in 2014 or 2022. They won’t be taken by surprise. If the threat picture changes (no sign of that right now) the B3 and allies will react accordingly. Any “little green men” will be shot dead.
BISC IN THE WILD
- Edward Lucas’s keynote at the Vilnius conference commemorating Lithuania’s late great philosopher-politician, Leonidas Donskis. Takeaway: small countries become powerful when they combine. For example, by publishing a joint yearbook on sub-threshold attacks.
- Media interviews: TVP World (rebuilding deterrence). The Sun (governments must tell the truth). Uusi Suomi (Russia’s real target is our decision-making). Seznam Zprávy (panicmongering is a Kremlin psyop). Aktuality.sk (mainstream politicians can beat the Russian-backed fringe).
RUSSIA’S ELECTORAL THEATRE
Russia went through the motions of electing a new State Duma. On Times Radio we disputed the use of the term “election” (tightly scripted, no choice, no surprises). Asking who won is like asking about the “result” of Macbeth. “We can only talk about the show they put on.”
Our weekly Kaliningrad monitoring noted close official attention to the performance, and a further 583.5m roubles (roughly €6m) for subsidised flights connecting the isolated exclave to the rest of Russia: about half of all such support so far. The bulletin is supported by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom in Vilnius.
We gave a bouquet to Kristin Kielon of MDR for her excellent reporting (link in German). The English-language summary of our weekly press review is here, and the full German version here.
WHAT WE ARE READING
- Emma Burrows of the AP, from Tallinn: NATO’s deputy commander in Europe says Putin is growing more cavalier and open to risk, but that Russia being able to escalate does not mean it has decided to. Proper reporting. Others should read, learn, copy.
- Our friends at Baltic Flank: Holger Roonemaa on the curfew Russian border guards imposed and how “Narva is next” turned into a trope.
- Gandalv, on Substack: NATO is ready for the war Russia will not fight, an invasion, and less ready for the one under way below the threshold.
- For a laugh, Adam Rang skewers ignorance and prejudice at badbaltic.com and on X as @BadBalticTakes.
BOOK OF THE WEEK
Edward Lucas recommends American Overthrow: Moscow’s Endgame in Its Long War with Washington by Keir Giles:
It’s a gripping account of the Kremlin’s systematic and growing influence in the US political system.
OVER TO YOU
Send us spots and tips, rants and raves. And if you catch one of our seven deadly sins in the wild, send it over. We would love to read it.
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Best regards, Edward Lucas and the BISC team
Next dispatch: October 12.
BISC’s motto is “Be more Baltic!” Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania see what the rest of NATO doesn’t see. And they do what others don’t do.