EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- A programme of ground-breaking research and high-level convening to highlight threats, vulnerabilities and opportunities.
- Countering Russian propaganda and western defeatism about the “Suwałki gap”—Russia’s problem in Kaliningrad is far greater.
- A landmark report with original research to be published in Q3 2026.
- Innovative investigative techniques, high-level backing.
- Launch conference in Brussels, briefings in other western capitals.
- Showcasing Lithuania as a source of expertise on this vital issue for NATO.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
Kaliningrad is the Russian Federation’s westernmost bastion, but also its weakest point. The “oblast” (region), with a population of around 1m, is highly militarised, but also isolated, decaying and — in its current position — unsustainable. BISC’s Kaliningrad 2050 programme is a multi-year effort that aims to:
Raise Awareness
of the real nature of the military and other threats from the oblast.
Explore Internal Problems
and centre-periphery tensions.
Stimulate Debate
about Kaliningrad’s future.
Showcase Lithuanian expertise
and other regional expertise in research and decision-making.
In practice, this means:
Analysing internal stress points including: demographic decline, fraying infrastructure, social conflicts, crime (from corruption to domestic violence and public order), public health problems (physical and mental), civil-military tensions and feelings of cultural isolation and political abandonment.
Assessing the actual military capabilities, posture and intent of Russian forces in Kaliningrad.
Countering Russia’s use of Kaliningrad for myth-making and intimidation; and outside acquiescence in this.
Explaining to decisionmakers and opinion-formers in NATO and EU countries the need for high-level attention.