Baltic Barometer
BISC’s flagship publication is the regular Baltic Barometer. Edited by
Christopher Butler Research Fellow Caspar Schulze, the first edition
highlights the Baltic states’ low borrowing costs—the three countries’
bonds trade roughly at the same level as France’s—and the potential for
even stronger financial performance if local capital markets are developed
further.
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Executive Summary
Credit Where Credit is Due: What borrowing costs tell us about the Baltic states’ security
- Contrary to some expectations, financial markets apply only a small geopolitical risk premium to the B3 (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia)
- Low sovereign borrowing costs reflect Baltic strength
- Corporate bank credit remains expensive, but alternatives such as Nasdaq Baltic’s corporate bond market are emerging.
- Nor is there an ‘investment freeze’. Existing foreign investors are reinvesting at scale, particularly in Lithuania
- Baltic venture capital ecosystems are amongst the most dynamic in Europe. Expanding domestic scale capital and exit pathways would boost them further.
- Equity markets remain constrained by their classification as an ‘advanced frontier market’
- A coordinated regional push for ’emerging market’ standing could accelerate institutional capital inflows, support scale-ups, cut bank lending costs and strengthen resilience.
Coming up
Future editions of the Baltic Barometer will look at issues
including energy security, defence technology and information resilience.
For further information, including regarding potential sponsorship of future
editions, write to us at barometer@securebaltics.org